Emission Relationship
An EDA
Youssef, Shaafici, Thinh, Vinh
2019-12-03
Objectives
Identify a relationship between Total Emissions and Total Economy Growth.
Identify a relationship between Emissions and Environmental damages
Identify protocol installment effect on government regulation activity
Identify relationship between environmental tax revenue and Total Emissions
Global Activity Growth Overview
Identifying Relationship between Emissions and Growth
Stationarizing
- Statistical Properties constant over time
- Mean
- Variance
- Autocorrelation, etc.
Stationarized Time Series
##
## Autocorrelations of series 'X', by lag
##
## -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1
## 0.222 -0.446 0.282 -0.008 -0.070 0.058 -0.042 0.069 0.017 -0.489
## 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
## 0.813 -0.414 -0.156 0.351 -0.146 -0.082 0.031 0.085 0.082 -0.277
## 10
## 0.196
Cross Correlation Plot
##
## Autocorrelations of series 'X', by lag
##
## -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1
## 0.222 -0.446 0.282 -0.008 -0.070 0.058 -0.042 0.069 0.017 -0.489
## 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
## 0.813 -0.414 -0.156 0.351 -0.146 -0.082 0.031 0.085 0.082 -0.277
## 10
## 0.196
Cross Correlation between Emission and Total Growth
LAG Histogram of XCorr Plot
Auto-Correlation Density at LAG 0
Identifying Relationship between Emmisions and Total Environmental Tax
Insights Gained
Total Emissions at lag zero tend to have a positive effect on Economy Growth
Non detemined relationship at non zero lags
Movement in total env tax revenue in time t-x has an effect on emission in time t
Potentially indicating an emission reaction for increased environmental taxes
Shaafici Section
An investigation into the relationship between particulate damage and emissions
Definition
Long Definition Particulate emissions damage is the damage due to exposure of a country’s population to ambient concentrations of particulates measuring less than 2.5 microns in diameter (PM2.5), ambient ozone pollution, and indoor concentrations of PM2.5 in households cooking with solid fuels. Damages are calculated as foregone labor income due to premature death. Estimates of health impacts from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Data for other years have been extrapolated from trends in mortality rates.
Statistical concepts
Within the national accounting framework, air pollution damages are estimated following a human capital approach. Damages from premature mortality are calculated as the present value of lost income during working age, 15-64. Premature mortality among children is valued by adjusting for years until working age and discounting more heavily into the future. Estimates are for both urban and rural areas. Exposure to household air pollution is proxied by the number of households in each country cooking with solid fuels.
Why its relevant to developement
Air pollution places a major burden on world health. In many places, including cities but also nearby rural areas, exposure to air pollution exposure is the main environmental threat to health. Long-term exposure to high levels of fine particulates in the air contributes to a range of health effects, including respiratory diseases, lung cancer, and heart disease, resulting in 3.2 million deaths annually according to the Global Burden of Disease 2010 study. Not only does exposure to air pollution affect the health of the world’s people, it also carries huge economic costs and represents a drag on development, particularly for low and middle income countries and vulnerable segments of the population such as children and the elderly.
Limitations
Labor productivity losses, as calculated within the framework of adjusted net savings, represent only part of the economic costs of air pollution and should be interpreted as a lower-end estimate.
Source
East Asia
Middle East North Africa
North America
Oceania
Sub Saharan Africa
Limitations with respect to the project
We had to make the decision to pick either APD in terms of percent of gross national income or in total USD.Countries that are wealthier will have a higher cost then poorer countries by virtue of being larger. Also GNI shows the relative burden to each country. But as all countries right now grow, even if the cost of particulate damage rises it will be outgrown by the wealth of the country.
Conclusions made
Because of the fact that most countries ADP is going down and is negatively correlated, and the arima model shows that ADP will continue to decrease, The growth of each country is worth more than trying to curb the issue.
Did the Kyoto Protocol have an effect on GHG emissions?
Global effect
Global effect - Intervention analysis
- \(y_t = \beta_0 + \beta_1 x_t + \eta_t\) where \(\eta'_t = \phi_1 \eta'_{t-1} + \varepsilon_t\) [1]
Global effect - Significance of post kyoto intervention
##
## z test of coefficients:
##
## Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
## ar1 1.64637 0.14503 11.3519 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ar2 -0.65822 0.14861 -4.4292 9.458e-06 ***
## intercept 39893.18297 5470.29099 7.2927 3.038e-13 ***
## xreg 268.38997 493.70053 0.5436 0.5867
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Country effect
- Smaller subset of countries of interest to analyze
Country effect - Emissions over time
Country effect - significant models
Kyoto Protocol on regulation activity
Compare number of regulations before vs after
T-test on regulation activity
##
## Paired t-test
##
## data: regulations_compare$pre_kyoto and regulations_compare$post_kyoto
## t = -17.336, df = 197, p-value < 2.2e-16
## alternative hypothesis: true difference in means is less than 0
## 95 percent confidence interval:
## -Inf -5.738715
## sample estimates:
## mean of the differences
## -6.343434
Suggestions for further work
Suggestions for further work - Per subsector
# By region 
# North America 
# Oceania 
# Europe pacific